For commercial real estate professionals underwriting and/or marketing a particular commercial location, a great tool for measuring the growth or decline of commercial activity in the local submarket is beverage sales. Here at TexMetrics.com, we track these revenues using the mixed beverage sales receipts released monthly by the state of Texas, and provides an online interactive database where the visitor can create customized reports.
Using the "Compare Zip Codes in a City" page, we can produce a pivot table that tracks the aggregated beverage revenues for every zip code in the City of Dallas on a quarterly basis. We can use this metric when trying to determine what neighborhoods are booming and where growth may be slowing. For this article, we've copmared the sales during Q3 2016 to the same period in Q3 2015. For the city of Dallas, Q3 beverage sales rose about 2%. We can use this as a benchmark to compare the growth or decline for a particular neighborhood.
Beverage revenues in Deep Ellum skyrocketed by over 40%. This remarkable rate of growth was driven by both improving peformance of nearly every resturant and/or bar in the neighborhood, for example the concert venue known as "The Bomb Factory," which was the market leader in both Q3 2015 & 2016, increased beverage sales over 60%. New restaurants, such as Filament and BrainDead Brewing, continue to pop up around Deep Ellum, and provide an additional boost to the nieghborhood's year over year performance.
Cedars and Downtown both generated revenues in 2016 that were around 15% more than the same period for 2015. Cedar's welcomed Alamo Cinema Drafthouse, completed by visionary development firm Matthews Southwest, and downtown growth was driven by Dallas' top grossing bar, Happiest Hour, and improving numbers at American Airlines Center.
The Bishop Arts district is certainly a destination neighborhood, but driven more by daytime retail than nightlife, which may explain why this trendy hot spot lagged the Dallas benchmark. It will be very interesting to track future trends with several exciting urban developments in Bishop Arts currently underway, being led by locally based developers such as Alamo Manhattan and Exxir Group.
The Greenville & Knox Henderson neighborhoods, saw a decline of 6%. It appears consumers in the area are shifting toward the premium experiences. In Lower Greenville, local market leader HG Supply, outpaced city averages with year over year growth of about 2.3%. The famed outdoor/indoor Truck Yard did report declines, likely a result of the unusually warm month of September, and smaller venues such as the Blind Butcher and The Old Crow, (despite the great 90's hits), also reported declines. Going north on Greenville, things didn't get much better: Nodding Donkey on SMU boulevard shut down and Barley House saw annual declines - but loyal Mustangs have little to fear as Milo Butterfingers posted a solid 8% gain.
We've also added Chart Builder: By Zip Code. This gives visitors to our site the chance to observe the aggregated sales for a particular zip code. This gives our users the opportunity to compare the growth trends in commercial activity of a particular neighborhood or local area compared to the state of entire state of Texas or the metropolitan area in which it is located. It also gives restaurant owners the chance to observe if they are growing faster or slower than the average local competitor. Similarly, it gives commercial real estate brokers re-leasing commercial locations that are under performing due to operational issues the chance to demonstrate to potential tenants that an area that supports commercial activity.
We have a new added a new page to our website - Chart Builder: By City. It's fun to look at how particular businesses do over time, but what we really want to do is create an economic indicator of consumer confidence. We also want to make it possible not just to look at individual businesses, we want to make it possible to compare local areas to a larger city to see if local area is growing at a rate greater than the surrounding city as a whole, which might indicate that the neighborhood is revitalizing, presenting a great time to invest or start a business. Similar to observing a particular stock, if the stock is growing at 5% per year, that is great, but if during the same year the overall stock market grew by 10%, the stock actually under performed (this isn't to say you shouldn't invest in low beta stocks or managers who hold low beta stocks, which is a whole different conversation we may post about later...) Similarly, if the stock lost 5%, that's no fun, but if the market as a whole lost 10%, the stock still outperformed despite decreasing in value.
This is important because consumer confidence is a forward looking indicator - if consumer confidence is rising, it is indicative that production and employment will be rising in coming months (more on this in upcoming blog posts).
Previously, you would have had to download the data into your own excel to observe the trends for an entire city, now we've taken that step out of the process to make it easier to observe trends. You'll still need to download into your own excel to put a neighborhood's change in alcohol sales and the city as whole on the same graph - we are working on making it possible to do that right here on our site as well. Good things to come.
Mr. Jerry Jones has a few reasons to be happy this fall, besides picking up the best rookie running back and quarterback in the NFL. During September, AT&T stadium generated more than $5.3 million in alcohol sales, the most of any month over the past 2 years and an increase of about 20% compared to the roughly $4.5 million generated last September. Even for the world's most valuable sports franchise, that's not too bad.
Of course, the Cowboys aren't the only winners in DFW. This year, FC Dallas finished atop the MLS league table for the first time in franchise history. FC Dallas was 12-1-4 at home, and the fans enjoyed all of it. Revenue from alcohol sales at Toyota Stadium from April to August was about $1.65 million - an increase of over 60% compared to the $1 million generated during the same period last year.