For commercial real estate professionals underwriting and/or marketing a particular commercial location, a great tool for measuring the growth or decline of commercial activity in the local submarket is beverage sales. Here at TexMetrics.com, we track these revenues using the mixed beverage sales receipts released monthly by the state of Texas, and provides an online interactive database where the visitor can create customized reports.
Using the "Compare Zip Codes in a City" page, we can produce a pivot table that tracks the aggregated beverage revenues for every zip code in the City of Dallas on a quarterly basis. We can use this metric when trying to determine what neighborhoods are booming and where growth may be slowing. For this article, we've copmared the sales during Q3 2016 to the same period in Q3 2015. For the city of Dallas, Q3 beverage sales rose about 2%. We can use this as a benchmark to compare the growth or decline for a particular neighborhood.
Beverage revenues in Deep Ellum skyrocketed by over 40%. This remarkable rate of growth was driven by both improving peformance of nearly every resturant and/or bar in the neighborhood, for example the concert venue known as "The Bomb Factory," which was the market leader in both Q3 2015 & 2016, increased beverage sales over 60%. New restaurants, such as Filament and BrainDead Brewing, continue to pop up around Deep Ellum, and provide an additional boost to the nieghborhood's year over year performance.
Cedars and Downtown both generated revenues in 2016 that were around 15% more than the same period for 2015. Cedar's welcomed Alamo Cinema Drafthouse, completed by visionary development firm Matthews Southwest, and downtown growth was driven by Dallas' top grossing bar, Happiest Hour, and improving numbers at American Airlines Center.
The Bishop Arts district is certainly a destination neighborhood, but driven more by daytime retail than nightlife, which may explain why this trendy hot spot lagged the Dallas benchmark. It will be very interesting to track future trends with several exciting urban developments in Bishop Arts currently underway, being led by locally based developers such as Alamo Manhattan and Exxir Group.
The Greenville & Knox Henderson neighborhoods, saw a decline of 6%. It appears consumers in the area are shifting toward the premium experiences. In Lower Greenville, local market leader HG Supply, outpaced city averages with year over year growth of about 2.3%. The famed outdoor/indoor Truck Yard did report declines, likely a result of the unusually warm month of September, and smaller venues such as the Blind Butcher and The Old Crow, (despite the great 90's hits), also reported declines. Going north on Greenville, things didn't get much better: Nodding Donkey on SMU boulevard shut down and Barley House saw annual declines - but loyal Mustangs have little to fear as Milo Butterfingers posted a solid 8% gain.